ESPN's SPI rating for the Worldcup

[bl0m5t3r]

Check this site, to interactively see the chances your team/country has according to ESPN's SPI rating.

FiveThirtyEight’s World Cup forecasting model uses ESPN’s Soccer Power Index (SPI) — a system that combines game- and player-based ratings to estimate a team’s overall skill level — to calculate odds of each country’s performance during the two stages of the World Cup. The probabilities are based on 10,000 simulations and will be updated at the end of each match. Read about our model, and see FiveThirtyEight and Grantland for ongoing coverage.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/world-cup/

it doesn't look good for the netherlands.

[Cheezzhead]

Check this site, to interactively see the chances your team/country has according to ESPN's SPI rating.

FiveThirtyEight’s World Cup forecasting model uses ESPN’s Soccer Power Index (SPI) — a system that combines game- and player-based ratings to estimate a team’s overall skill level — to calculate odds of each country’s performance during the two stages of the World Cup. The probabilities are based on 10,000 simulations and will be updated at the end of each match. Read about our model, and see FiveThirtyEight and Grantland for ongoing coverage.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/world-cup/

it doesn't look good for the netherlands.


[ Image ]

Argentina on 13%? I seriously doubt that. I don't see them doing any better then 4 years ago.

Besides, Netherlands has always done better in the underdog role =D

[Calv]

As far as I know, we haven't lost an opening match on the World cup for 66 years. NOTE: World cup! So I'm willing to see if Spain will be the first to beat us. I do believe we will get second in group stage, I don't believe in beating Brasil this year though...

[a5ad]

The stats are simply bad and totaly incorrect

[MaliBoo]

Somewhat agree with a5ad... How the hell does bosnia qualify better than portugal? Ive never seen them win anything.

[bl0m5t3r]

Somewhat agree with a5ad... How the hell does bosnia qualify better than portugal? Ive never seen them win anything.

probably also has to do with what group they are in and which opponents they get.
check the site and see it more into depth.

The stats are simply bad and totaly incorrect

show me better ones.

[a5ad]

The stats are simply bad and totaly incorrect

show me better ones.

I, who is not a football fan nor cares about it too much, could make a table with more sense than this one.
But i didn't come here to tell everyone how the championship will end, I'm just pointing out that this table makes no sense and there shouldn't be any discussion based on it.

[MaliBoo]

I, who is not a football fan nor cares about it too much, could make a table with more sense than this one.
But i didn't come here to tell everyone how the championship will end, I'm just pointing out that this table makes no sense and there shouldn't be any discussion based on it.

This is what you sound like.

[bl0m5t3r]

The stats are simply bad and totaly incorrect

show me better ones.

I, who is not a football fan nor cares about it too much, could make a table with more sense than this one.
But i didn't come here to tell everyone how the championship will end, I'm just pointing out that this table makes no sense and there shouldn't be any discussion based on it.

you're not pointing out anything. There will not be any solid base, player tracking, team tracking, etc. involved. not even gambling stats (the red part of the graph), or anything. just an argument. a statement. without any base.

Well i can tell you i'm not much into football either, but when i make a statement that something is TOTALLY INCORRECT and SIMPLY BAD, i have something to either prover that or to make that claim at least sound credible.

I know we are on the internet and all, and you can say/tweet/post/etc. what you want, but i also like to think we're a bunch of sane people here that can reason with each other.

Even though i just posted this to get a conversation going, as i myself don't believe stats can predict the future of something like a worldcup of football. This is already more of an argument than you have posted.

I like to encourage people to give a thread more taught then a girl on tinder.

[a5ad]

Actually, I wrote many words in my original post but as I'm not really into football, I just replaced my post with simple words.
Why I think it's bad? Because Nigeria and Croatia have the same percentage.
I never saw Nigeria playing nor I know there's any famous player from that country's team.
On the other hand, Croatia has the best midfielder in Champions league - Modric (he was assorted in European top 11 players, and he was announced the best player for his position. Don't ask me for link but i read it somewhere on football-related site), Bayern's attacker (Mandzukic) and Barcelona's player (Rakitic) and couple of players in other top european clubs.
Only Modric is "worth" more than majority, if not more than whole Nigerian team (He was sold to Real Madrid for 35M)

You can't even compare it to Nigeria's team, and your table claims these two teams have the same odds of winning. With all rights, I told you that the table we're talking about is totaly bad and incorrect.

[Cheezzhead]

girl on tinder.

NOW WERE TALKING

[kingjr]

Actually, I wrote many words in my original post but as I'm not really into football, I just replaced my post with simple words.
Why I think it's bad? Because Nigeria and Croatia have the same percentage.
I never saw Nigeria playing nor I know there's any famous player from that country's team.

Vincent Enyeama mate. Lionel Messi's Nemesis.

[bl0m5t3r]

Actually, I wrote many words in my original post but as I'm not really into football, I just replaced my post with simple words.
Why I think it's bad? Because Nigeria and Croatia have the same percentage.
I never saw Nigeria playing nor I know there's any famous player from that country's team.
On the other hand, Croatia has the best midfielder in Champions league - Modric (he was assorted in European top 11 players, and he was announced the best player for his position. Don't ask me for link but i read it somewhere on football-related site), Bayern's attacker (Mandzukic) and Barcelona's player (Rakitic) and couple of players in other top european clubs.
Only Modric is "worth" more than majority, if not more than whole Nigerian team (He was sold to Real Madrid for 35M)

You can't even compare it to Nigeria's team, and your table claims these two teams have the same odds of winning. With all rights, I told you that the table we're talking about is totaly bad and incorrect.

so basically you base your claim on patriotism.

[huawa]

You better go hide marcelo...

[bl0m5t3r]

maybe you guys will agree with these stats from the wall street journal:
http://graphicsweb.wsj.com/documents/WO ... st%20Water

[a5ad]

Actually, I wrote many words in my original post but as I'm not really into football, I just replaced my post with simple words.
Why I think it's bad? Because Nigeria and Croatia have the same percentage.
I never saw Nigeria playing nor I know there's any famous player from that country's team.
On the other hand, Croatia has the best midfielder in Champions league - Modric (he was assorted in European top 11 players, and he was announced the best player for his position. Don't ask me for link but i read it somewhere on football-related site), Bayern's attacker (Mandzukic) and Barcelona's player (Rakitic) and couple of players in other top european clubs.
Only Modric is "worth" more than majority, if not more than whole Nigerian team (He was sold to Real Madrid for 35M)

You can't even compare it to Nigeria's team, and your table claims these two teams have the same odds of winning. With all rights, I told you that the table we're talking about is totaly bad and incorrect.

so basically you base your claim on patriotism.

What the... I mentioned Croatia because I know the most about its players success in global football, not because Im "offended Croat that is put together in same rank as Nigeria".

Was a good game versus brasil, only thing that i have to point up is referee's mistakes. There should be no penalty, as secondary camera showed there was no faul (at least no such a harsh faul that should result in a penalty shot).

[bl0m5t3r]

agree with the referee statement, i think he was afraid he would get his throat slit if he didn't let brazil win. brazil was aweful and croatia didn't deserve this.

[MaliBoo]

agree with the referee statement, i think he was afraid he would get his throat slit if he didn't let brazil win. brazil was aweful and croatia didn't deserve this.

I dont think croatia deserved to win either, they made some awful mistakes. What bothers me more than the penalty is the supposed Olić's foul on Cesar.

[tekz]

Your goalkeeper was awful. Brazil werent amazing, and had your keeper not made mistakes you might have actually got something form the game.

[Cheezzhead]

Your goalkeeper was awful. Brazil werent amazing, and had your keeper not made mistakes you might have actually got something form the game.

Be that as it may, the referees were absolutely awful. I don't know if it was because Brazil is the home team or if this is just the standard for the entire cup. I don't like either possibility.