ESPN's SPI rating for the Worldcup

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ESPN's SPI rating for the Worldcup

Postby bl0m5t3r » 10 Jun 2014, 17:48

Check this site, to interactively see the chances your team/country has according to ESPN's SPI rating.

FiveThirtyEight’s World Cup forecasting model uses ESPN’s Soccer Power Index (SPI) — a system that combines game- and player-based ratings to estimate a team’s overall skill level — to calculate odds of each country’s performance during the two stages of the World Cup. The probabilities are based on 10,000 simulations and will be updated at the end of each match. Read about our model, and see FiveThirtyEight and Grantland for ongoing coverage.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/world-cup/

it doesn't look good for the netherlands. :(


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Re: ESPN's SPI rating for the Worldcup

Postby Cheezzhead » 10 Jun 2014, 18:53

bl0m5t3r wrote:Check this site, to interactively see the chances your team/country has according to ESPN's SPI rating.

FiveThirtyEight’s World Cup forecasting model uses ESPN’s Soccer Power Index (SPI) — a system that combines game- and player-based ratings to estimate a team’s overall skill level — to calculate odds of each country’s performance during the two stages of the World Cup. The probabilities are based on 10,000 simulations and will be updated at the end of each match. Read about our model, and see FiveThirtyEight and Grantland for ongoing coverage.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/world-cup/

it doesn't look good for the netherlands. :(


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Argentina on 13%? I seriously doubt that. I don't see them doing any better then 4 years ago.

Besides, Netherlands has always done better in the underdog role =D
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Re: ESPN's SPI rating for the Worldcup

Postby Calv » 10 Jun 2014, 19:14

As far as I know, we haven't lost an opening match on the World cup for 66 years. NOTE: World cup! So I'm willing to see if Spain will be the first to beat us. I do believe we will get second in group stage, I don't believe in beating Brasil this year though...
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Re: ESPN's SPI rating for the Worldcup

Postby a5ad » 10 Jun 2014, 22:57

The stats are simply bad and totaly incorrect
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Re: ESPN's SPI rating for the Worldcup

Postby MaliBoo » 11 Jun 2014, 13:19

Somewhat agree with a5ad... How the hell does bosnia qualify better than portugal? Ive never seen them win anything.
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Re: ESPN's SPI rating for the Worldcup

Postby bl0m5t3r » 11 Jun 2014, 18:42

MaliBoo wrote:Somewhat agree with a5ad... How the hell does bosnia qualify better than portugal? Ive never seen them win anything.
probably also has to do with what group they are in and which opponents they get.
check the site and see it more into depth.

a5ad wrote:The stats are simply bad and totaly incorrect

show me better ones.
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Re: ESPN's SPI rating for the Worldcup

Postby a5ad » 11 Jun 2014, 20:46

bl0m5t3r wrote:
a5ad wrote:The stats are simply bad and totaly incorrect

show me better ones.

I, who is not a football fan nor cares about it too much, could make a table with more sense than this one.
But i didn't come here to tell everyone how the championship will end, I'm just pointing out that this table makes no sense and there shouldn't be any discussion based on it.
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Re: ESPN's SPI rating for the Worldcup

Postby MaliBoo » 11 Jun 2014, 20:51

a5ad wrote:I, who is not a football fan nor cares about it too much, could make a table with more sense than this one.
But i didn't come here to tell everyone how the championship will end, I'm just pointing out that this table makes no sense and there shouldn't be any discussion based on it.

This is what you sound like.

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Re: ESPN's SPI rating for the Worldcup

Postby bl0m5t3r » 11 Jun 2014, 21:18

a5ad wrote:
bl0m5t3r wrote:
a5ad wrote:The stats are simply bad and totaly incorrect

show me better ones.

I, who is not a football fan nor cares about it too much, could make a table with more sense than this one.
But i didn't come here to tell everyone how the championship will end, I'm just pointing out that this table makes no sense and there shouldn't be any discussion based on it.


you're not pointing out anything. There will not be any solid base, player tracking, team tracking, etc. involved. not even gambling stats (the red part of the graph), or anything. just an argument. a statement. without any base.

Well i can tell you i'm not much into football either, but when i make a statement that something is TOTALLY INCORRECT and SIMPLY BAD, i have something to either prover that or to make that claim at least sound credible.

I know we are on the internet and all, and you can say/tweet/post/etc. what you want, but i also like to think we're a bunch of sane people here that can reason with each other.

Even though i just posted this to get a conversation going, as i myself don't believe stats can predict the future of something like a worldcup of football. This is already more of an argument than you have posted.

I like to encourage people to give a thread more taught then a girl on tinder.
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Re: ESPN's SPI rating for the Worldcup

Postby a5ad » 11 Jun 2014, 21:46

Actually, I wrote many words in my original post but as I'm not really into football, I just replaced my post with simple words.
Why I think it's bad? Because Nigeria and Croatia have the same percentage.
I never saw Nigeria playing nor I know there's any famous player from that country's team.
On the other hand, Croatia has the best midfielder in Champions league - Modric (he was assorted in European top 11 players, and he was announced the best player for his position. Don't ask me for link but i read it somewhere on football-related site), Bayern's attacker (Mandzukic) and Barcelona's player (Rakitic) and couple of players in other top european clubs.
Only Modric is "worth" more than majority, if not more than whole Nigerian team (He was sold to Real Madrid for 35M)

You can't even compare it to Nigeria's team, and your table claims these two teams have the same odds of winning. With all rights, I told you that the table we're talking about is totaly bad and incorrect.
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Re: ESPN's SPI rating for the Worldcup

Postby Cheezzhead » 11 Jun 2014, 22:09

bl0m5t3r wrote:girl on tinder.


NOW WERE TALKING
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Re: ESPN's SPI rating for the Worldcup

Postby kingjr » 11 Jun 2014, 23:14

a5ad wrote:Actually, I wrote many words in my original post but as I'm not really into football, I just replaced my post with simple words.
Why I think it's bad? Because Nigeria and Croatia have the same percentage.
I never saw Nigeria playing nor I know there's any famous player from that country's team.

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Re: ESPN's SPI rating for the Worldcup

Postby bl0m5t3r » 12 Jun 2014, 20:56

a5ad wrote:Actually, I wrote many words in my original post but as I'm not really into football, I just replaced my post with simple words.
Why I think it's bad? Because Nigeria and Croatia have the same percentage.
I never saw Nigeria playing nor I know there's any famous player from that country's team.
On the other hand, Croatia has the best midfielder in Champions league - Modric (he was assorted in European top 11 players, and he was announced the best player for his position. Don't ask me for link but i read it somewhere on football-related site), Bayern's attacker (Mandzukic) and Barcelona's player (Rakitic) and couple of players in other top european clubs.
Only Modric is "worth" more than majority, if not more than whole Nigerian team (He was sold to Real Madrid for 35M)

You can't even compare it to Nigeria's team, and your table claims these two teams have the same odds of winning. With all rights, I told you that the table we're talking about is totaly bad and incorrect.


so basically you base your claim on patriotism.
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Re: ESPN's SPI rating for the Worldcup

Postby huawa » 12 Jun 2014, 21:14

You better go hide marcelo...
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Re: ESPN's SPI rating for the Worldcup

Postby bl0m5t3r » 12 Jun 2014, 22:32

maybe you guys will agree with these stats from the wall street journal:
http://graphicsweb.wsj.com/documents/WO ... st%20Water
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Re: ESPN's SPI rating for the Worldcup

Postby a5ad » 12 Jun 2014, 23:08

bl0m5t3r wrote:
a5ad wrote:Actually, I wrote many words in my original post but as I'm not really into football, I just replaced my post with simple words.
Why I think it's bad? Because Nigeria and Croatia have the same percentage.
I never saw Nigeria playing nor I know there's any famous player from that country's team.
On the other hand, Croatia has the best midfielder in Champions league - Modric (he was assorted in European top 11 players, and he was announced the best player for his position. Don't ask me for link but i read it somewhere on football-related site), Bayern's attacker (Mandzukic) and Barcelona's player (Rakitic) and couple of players in other top european clubs.
Only Modric is "worth" more than majority, if not more than whole Nigerian team (He was sold to Real Madrid for 35M)

You can't even compare it to Nigeria's team, and your table claims these two teams have the same odds of winning. With all rights, I told you that the table we're talking about is totaly bad and incorrect.


so basically you base your claim on patriotism.

What the... I mentioned Croatia because I know the most about its players success in global football, not because Im "offended Croat that is put together in same rank as Nigeria".

Was a good game versus brasil, only thing that i have to point up is referee's mistakes. There should be no penalty, as secondary camera showed there was no faul (at least no such a harsh faul that should result in a penalty shot).
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Re: ESPN's SPI rating for the Worldcup

Postby bl0m5t3r » 12 Jun 2014, 23:50

agree with the referee statement, i think he was afraid he would get his throat slit if he didn't let brazil win. brazil was aweful and croatia didn't deserve this.
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Re: ESPN's SPI rating for the Worldcup

Postby MaliBoo » 12 Jun 2014, 23:56

bl0m5t3r wrote:agree with the referee statement, i think he was afraid he would get his throat slit if he didn't let brazil win. brazil was aweful and croatia didn't deserve this.

I dont think croatia deserved to win either, they made some awful mistakes. What bothers me more than the penalty is the supposed Olić's foul on Cesar.
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Re: ESPN's SPI rating for the Worldcup

Postby tekz » 13 Jun 2014, 09:02

Your goalkeeper was awful. Brazil werent amazing, and had your keeper not made mistakes you might have actually got something form the game.
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Re: ESPN's SPI rating for the Worldcup

Postby Cheezzhead » 13 Jun 2014, 10:36

tekz wrote:Your goalkeeper was awful. Brazil werent amazing, and had your keeper not made mistakes you might have actually got something form the game.


Be that as it may, the referees were absolutely awful. I don't know if it was because Brazil is the home team or if this is just the standard for the entire cup. I don't like either possibility.
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